Sunday Notes, Week 9.5: Arike Ogunbowale again downs Team USA, Jordan Horston for MIP, Marina Mabrey on the move

Tankathon Check-in

To be clear, no one in the WNBA is currently tanking on purpose (at least, the players aren’t). That being said, let’s see where our teams are right now in the lottery standings and where they project to end up (chart vaguely organized by rightmost column):

Team:	Games back in lottery¹:	Games back of No. 8 seed:	Strength of schedule remaining (out of 12)²:	Likely finish:
Washington	3	4.5	9th-strongest (fourth-easiest)	Top-two lottery odds
Los Angeles	1.5	4	4	Top-two lottery odds
Atlanta3	4.5	3	12	Bottom-two lottery odds
Dallas	6	4.5	2	Bottom-two lottery odds
Chicago4	6.5	———	10	No. 8 seed
Indiana	1.5	———	11	No. 7 seed

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Chicago Sky/Connecticut Sun

Some thoughts on the trade from Wednesday that sent Marina Mabrey from Chicago to Connecticut:

1. We accepted some time ago that Mabrey’s contract was an above-market rate deal for a player of her caliber. So from Connecticut’s perspective, this trade basically can be broken down into two parts: matching negative-value salary first, and then compensating Chicago for having received the better player in the deal. In Moriah Jefferson and Rachel Banham, the Sun exchange two players contributing below the level of the average player at their salary. From there, it’s essentially picking up Mabrey at marginal cost for both a pick swap that drops Connecticut back from the late first to the late second round and a mid-to-late first in 2026. That’s pretty good value.
2. Mabrey is going from a starting lineup in which she’s arguably the best backcourt defender to a rotation in which she’s the worst defender overall. She also goes from being the second-best shot-creator to the No. 3 or 4 option. Both of these should bode very well for what she’ll be contributing in Uncasville.
3. For spacing reasons, I do not think Tyasha Harris should be the one heading to the bench.
4. The Sky would do well to start Banham in the space vacated for Mabrey, for spacing reasons.
5. Chicago is in all likelihood going to be worse out of the Olympic break than it was before. But even with this major hit to the quality of the Sky’s rotation, they are not going to be easy to chase down in the playoff race. Atlanta is three games back and has a slightly easier schedule but lost by eight and nine points the two times these teams played in July. Dallas is expected to get Satou Sabally back out of the break, but it’s 4.5 games back and has the second-toughest remaining schedule. This may come down to the wire.
6. The Sun are now the first team in league history to carry four players each making at least $200,000 that season. Which will set up …
7. A mildly interesting winter ahead for Connecticut. Alyssa Thomas, DeWanna Bonner and Brionna Jones are all unrestricted free agents, and with Marina Mabrey’s 2025 salary now on the books, the franchise could bring back all three stars on deals approaching the supermax and fill out the rest of their open roster spots at salaries not much higher than the veteran minimum. In this hypothetical, the Harris extension and Olivia Nelson-Ododa’s rookie-scale fourth-year team option allow Connecticut to fill out its starting lineup and Sixth Player slots with good contributors, even with the two hundred thousandaire quartet.
8. This is the first significant in-season trade since Sylvia Fowles to Minnesota in 2015, right?
9. This is the first time since her rookie year that Mabrey is going to be on a team that finishes with a record over .500.

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Dallas Wings

Most points against Team USA, last 12 years:

T-1. Chennedy Carter, 34 points (Texas AM&, 2019 college exhibitions)
T-1. Arike Ogunbowale, 34 points (Team WNBA, 2024 All-Star Game)
T-3. T- Anete Šteinberga, 30 points (Latvia, 2018 World Cup group stage)
T-3. Sabrina Ionescu, 30 points (Oregon, 2019 college exhibitions)
5. Arike Ogunbowale, 26 points (Team WNBA, 2021 All-Star Game)
6. Satou Sabally, 25 points (Oregon, 2019 college exhibitions)
7. Ana Dabović, 24 points (Serbia, 2014 World Cup group stage)
8. Emma Meesseman, 23 points (Belgium, 2018 World Cup semifinals)
T-9. Alba Torrens, 20 points (Spain, 2016 Summer Olympics preliminary round)
T-9. Han Xu, 20 points (China, 2018 World Cup group stage)

The group of players who scored in the upper teens includes current and former W players Erin Phillips, Li Yueru, Julie Vanloo, Sandrine Gruda, Ruthy Hebard, DiJonai Carrington and Kiana Williams.

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Los Angeles Sparks

What has been the most meaningless 3-pointer of the 2024 season? I would give the winning bid to Azurá Stevens’ buzzer-beater against the Storm this week:

I would also give the runner-up to Los Angeles, when Stephanie Talbot hit this one three weeks ago against Washington:

If I had a nickel for every time a Spark forward hit a meaningless buzzer-beating 3-pointer to end a close loss this month, I’d have two nickels. Which isn’t a lot, but it’s weird that it happened twice.

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Seattle Storm

Jordan Horston put on a clinic in off-ball movement on Sunday. She scored 16 points on 8-of-11 shooting with three assists against the Dream, creating offense against the likes of Haley Jones and Aerial Powers, but it was her cutting which particularly fueled her production.

When Horston entered the draft out of Tennessee in 2023, the scout on her offense was that she had a good feel for offensive space and vision on the ball and was a solid finisher and decent jump-shooter, as long as she wasn’t paired with a paint-bound center. The projection was that her ability as a second-side pick-and-roll playmaker and cutter could be just good enough to keep her excellent defense on the court.

Horston has already blown that offensive projection out of the water thanks to her off-ball activity. After a rookie season in which she and the Storm were not always sure whether to use her as a cutter, spacer or screener, she has made real progress in honing her wide-ranging skill set to consistently create offense without the ball. Her combination of visual processing and timing make her a scorer that defenses need to constantly account for. And after offseason shoulder surgery, her inside jumper has developed¹ to the point where she is a true triple threat.

This progress comes in addition to a defensive game which has already more than lived up to its billing. Horston graded out as a role 7 defender as a prospect, but her versatility and defensive playmaking were already elite as a rookie — she ended up ranking second in steal rate and 25th in block rate in 2023, per Her Hoop Stats — but as I noted at the time, some around the league were pumping their brakes a bit given that much of that was coming from being in the wrong place at the right time.

This season, Horston has significantly cleaned up those rotation issues and gambles, improving her defense both on and off the ball. That was noticeable this week on several occasions.

Horston ranks 13th in the WNBA defensive wins above replacement, per Positive Residual, and is tied for 21st in overall WAR. In a year where few players have taken notable steps forward in their game, Horston should be a viable midseason candidate for Most Improved Player.

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1. Horston is shooting 43.9% on non-layup 2-point attempts, per Synergy, up from what was a decent 37.8% as a senior in Knoxville ↩︎