Breaking down the Connecticut Sun’s fight for seeding

If the playoffs started today, the Sun’s most likely opponent would either be the Phoenix Mercury or the Indiana Fever. The first round of the playoffs is a best-of-three series where the higher seed has home court advantage for the first two games.

“Certainly, we want to have home court advantage. And I think for us still staying in that two seed is important,” Sun head coach Stephanie White told The Next. “I think every time that we step out on the floor, certainly we’re playing to continue to work towards playing our best basketball when the playoffs get here, but also, maintaining seeding is important for us. And two seed is where we’ve been, and we got to stay locked in and try to hold it.”

Connecticut is coming off two back-to-back home losses making their current road trip important for seeding.

The Mercury and the Fever are two very different teams, so let’s take a look at how the Sun match up with both:

The Phoenix Mercury

If the Sun secure the No. 2 seed they will most likely play the Phoenix Mercury in the first round of the playoffs.

In the three games when the Sun have played the Mercury this season, they’ve attempted an average of 23.3 3-point shots per game. That 3-point attempt average is higher against the Mercury than any other team in the league. 

The Mercury have struggled post-Olympic break with injuries and technical foul trouble. Against the Las Vegas Aces on Sept. 1, Mercury guard Natasha Cloud picked up her seventh technical foul of the season, resulting in a subsequent one-game suspension as mandated by league rules.

Mercury guard Diana Taurasi (six technical fouls) and guard/forward Kahleah Copper (six technical fouls) are also both at risk of suspension. The team overall also leads the league in technical fouls this season.

Just 4-7 since the Olympic break after posting a 13-12 record through the first 25 games, the Mercury have also seen their offense drop off. During that 13-12 stretch, the team averaged nearly 84 points per game; over the last 11 games, Phoenix is averaging 77.

Against the Mercury, the Sun may face some challenges scoring in the paint and facing off against veteran players like Taurasi, Copper and center Brittney Griner. That trio was part of the Team USA squad that won a gold medal in the Paris Olympics, so they are no strangers to winning.

Sun forward Brionna Jones, forward/guard DeWanna Bonner and forward Alyssa Thomas may have some difficulty scoring against Griner, a 6’9 powerhouse, so they’ll have to be crafty as they make moves to the basket if they want to succeed. Plays that force Griner out of the paint will also help them generate points close to the basket.

Because of Griner’s presence in the post, that might explain why Connecticut has attempted more 3-pointers against the Mercury compared to other teams in the league.

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The Indiana Fever

If the Sun end up as the No. 3 seed they will potentially face a young Indiana team that hasn’t made the playoffs since 2016.

The Fever have been hot lately, as they continue to build team chemistry and gel. They have an 8-2 record following the Olympic break after starting the season 11-15.

Indiana features two big scoring threats with guard Kelsey Mitchell averaging 24.9 points per game and guard Caitlin Clark averaging 24.7 points per game after the Olympic break. Forward/center Aliyah Boston has also made a huge impact on the team’s recent success, currently averaging 9.1 rebounds per game.

Fever guard Lexie Hull has been a secret weapon for the team adding a 3-point scoring threat. On Aug. 18 against the Seattle Storm, she recorded a career-high 22 points and was 6-for-7 from behind the arc.

While Connecticut is a strong defensive team, those strengths haven’t perfectly matched up against the Fever’s offense. When the two teams have played each other earlier this season, the Sun have allowed an average of 77.8 points per game, compared to the team’s season average of just under 74 points per game.

The Sun like to be able to control the pace of the game and cycle through plays to get the best available shot or create fastbreak scoring opportunities off of defensive plays.

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The Breakdown

Ultimately the Fever and Mercury are moving in two different directions, and the Sun would likely rather see Phoenix in the first round. Either way, Connecticut still has room to improve on offense before the playoffs begin, regardless of opponent.

 “I think it’s different things in different moments,” White said of the team’s occasional offensive struggles. “I think sometimes it’s maybe putting a lot of pressure on ourselves to be perfect. We’re putting a lot of pressure on ourselves to see one thing. We are encouraging them to just play a little bit more free, like, relax, have fun, and they want it really bad, right? Sometimes when you want something really bad you almost hinder your ability to get it because you’re tight, because you want everything to be perfect. And it’s not like that in sport, right?  

“We’ve got to find our moments of being a little bit more resilient, handling adversity a little bit better, being able to free our minds. I think when we get in some of those situations, be encouraging one another, instead of putting more pressure on one another. That’s a growth process, and that can come from anybody, on our team, on our staff.”

Part of the problem has been slow starts in games.

“That’s definitely something we talked about. We had some bad starts early in the season. And we wanted to come out better but we just got to be able to maintain that and I think it comes down to taking care of the ball,” Jones told reporters. “I think we had some poor turnovers, and not necessarily from what they were doing, even just our communication and getting the ball where we want it to go. So, I think we just got to do a better job that way.”

The Sun still have some things that they need to sort out before entering the playoffs with the hopes of winning the franchise’s first championship. Their upcoming road games, against Phoenix and Las Vegas, will be huge factors in determining their final seed placement.

“We want to start gelling and we want to get better, and we want to go into the playoffs rolling,” Sun guard Marina Mabrey told reporters. “I don’t know that it’s life or death for us. I think it’s more just like we were disappointed that we didn’t play up to our capabilities. And we want to play our best every single game for four quarters.”

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