Sunday Notes, Week 17: Lessons from the 2024 WNBA season

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What did we learn about WNBA basketball this year?

1. Do not trust any contract Dallas gives to a center

When was the last time the Wings gave a contract above the minimum to a center that didn’t look bad in hindsight? Re-signing Liz Cambage to a max in 2018 held up well, and since then they’ve paid three centers quite well, two of them ending up as backups and the other currently owning possibly the worst-value contract in the W.

2. Role players who lack shot-creation skills remain severely undervalued

Bridget Carleton. Leonie Fiebich and Kayla Thornton. Tyasha Harris. Alysha Clark. Every team still playing starts a 3-&-D, and New York even has a second such player as its Sixth Woman. As long as there remains only one basketball to go around, players who make up for poor shot-creation abilities with good shooting and cutting will be crucial parts of any good lineup, and yet many teams continue to undervalue this skill set. Take for example Aerial Powers getting a $155,000 AAV from Atlanta this offseason, more than both Alanna Smith and Carleton; Powers was good for 0.3 pWAR per 1,000 minutes this season, while Smith and Carleton were each worth over 2.5 wins. Or look at the 2023 draft, where Haley Jones was taken ahead of Jordan Horston.¹

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3.  Set screens high and set them early

New York, Las Vegas and Indiana were the top three offenses in the league this season, and while they’ve got a number of things in common, a subtle thing that they all do that most other teams do not is how they run their pick-n-rolls. Each of those three starts many of its offensive sets with a ball screen set only a few feet past the halfcourt line. They use the scoring ability of their guards and their bigs’ abilities as screen-and-rollers to pressure defenses within the first six or seven seconds of the shot clock, creating a level of offensive efficiency that’s just impossible for others to consistently match.

1. This wasn’t intended to just focus on Atlanta — Dallas and Chicago have both had these issues — but the Dream have simply had the most visible mistakes. ↩︎

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