Stanford is ‘optimistic’ the NCAA Tournament is still in sight

“I know this has kind of been up and down a little bit,” Paye told The Next. “We’re not getting as many wins as I know our team is accustomed to, our coaches, our fans. … I have confidence in our team. I just know that we are going to show up and do the work that we need to do.”

The Cardinal are 10-9 overall, including 2-6 in their first eight games as a member of the ACC. They are 1-6 away from Maples Pavilion, have just one win over a ranked opponent in their 19 games, and have not been ranked in the top 25 all season. While Stanford currently has a national NET ranking of 45, this is not a team with an obvious NCAA Tournament resume at this moment.

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Let’s take a moment to absorb that truth. Stanford, a team that has participated in 36 straight NCAA Tournaments — a run that dates back to 1988 — may not be in the tournament field come mid-March unless it can win some big games.

It’s too easy to point to Tara VanDerveer’s retirement last spring after 38 years on The Farm as the source of a problem. VanDerveer’s determination that it was time to step away likely didn’t change the Cardinal’s circumstances much this season.

Paye, who spent 17 years at VanDerveer’s side on the bench, inherited a Stanford team full of complementary players but without a go-to star, though sophomore Nunu Agara (17.6 points per game) is having a strong season after coming off the bench last season. She has upped her scoring average by 12 points per game from last season.

“We are asking Nunu to be a go-to player, and that’s a big responsibility,” Paye said of Agara, one of five underclassmen in the country averaging at least 17 points, eight rebounds and two assists. “Cameron Brink didn’t have that responsibility as a sophomore. Nunu has had flashes of brilliance. But it’s been a roller-coaster ride for her, which has been the story of our season.”

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Paye pointed out that there have been stretches where she is playing three sophomores and two freshmen at the same time.

A team can’t lose Brink, one of the best post players in program history, and Hannah Jump, the program’s all-time leader in career 3-pointers, and not feel the loss. It can’t lose All-American Kiki Iriafen to USC via the transfer portal and not feel the loss. And it can’t go virtually the entire season without starting point guard and its most experienced returner in Talana Lepolo — who played the first five games of the season before going out with a knee injury — and not feel the loss.

Paye said, “I don’t anticipate that Talana is going to be playing this year. We miss her.”

The Cardinal have started five different guards this season, looking for an answer to Lepolo’s absence and some consistent backcourt scoring. Sophomore Chloe Clardy put up a career-high 22 points against California on Jan. 23.

Transfers Tess Heal (Santa Clara) and Mary Ashley Stevenson (Purdue) are solid contributors on a team that leans far more solid at this point than anything else.

The Cardinal can shoot 3-pointers — they have made 156 this season at a 38.8% clip, which ranks second in the ACC. But Stanford’s depth and talent inside isn’t what it usually is.

“We are undersized,” Paye said. “This isn’t just ‘pound the ball inside’ like it’s been in past years. We have to find different ways to be effective.”

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Paye believes her team needs to be effective on both ends of the floor. Poor offensive execution in specific quarters has been a common theme in games the Cardinal have lost by single digits. They are turning the ball over too much, averaging 14.3 turnovers per game. The other issue is defense, where Stanford ranks 16th out of 18 ACC teams in allowing 67.6 points a game.

“When the other team goes on a run, how do we slow it down and get our own run going?” Paye said. “We are watching a lot of video and having good conversations. This team is very open and willing to feedback.”

The Cardinal are close to having a much better resume. In early December, Stanford went to Baton Rouge and led then-No. 5 LSU for most of the game before falling in overtime. Three of its six ACC losses were by 4 points or fewer.

A season sweep at the hands of Cal, something that hadn’t happened since 1985-86, is as symbolic of a new era as the cross-country travel demands of the ACC are.

And still, the future looks bright. Paye is bringing in the No. 3 recruiting class in the nation next season, including a trio of McDonald All-Americans in Alex Eschmeyer, Lara Somfai and Hailee Swain. That class will add to a team that will return a lot of players who got valuable experience this season. That’s the kind of rebuilding talk that has been so foreign to Stanford for decades — perhaps as foreign as the idea of some of the nation’s top players transferring out, which has also happened over the past few seasons.

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The toughest stretch of the season is still to come. No. 15 North Carolina (home), No. 3 Notre Dame (road), Louisville (road) and No. 20 Georgia Tech (home) are still on the schedule. There is little doubt that Stanford needs a couple of big late-season wins to put itself back into the NCAA Tournament picture.

“I’m still optimistic,” Paye said. “We have a lot of season left. I know we have a record that a lot of people aren’t used to, but this team has been positive and coachable and we have great practices. Making the NCAA Tournament is always our goal, and we’ve got to start playing well consistently down this stretch.”