Birmingham 3 Regional: A Texas two-step to the top seeds

This bracket holds not one, but two play-in games, two programs making their first-ever appearances in the field of 68, two regular season conference co-champions and four outright winners of their regular season league crowns. Tennessee keeps its streak alive of having appeared in every NCAA Division I Tournament held (43). There are Bluejays and Cardinals circling opponents, Buckeyes, Illini, Wolverines and Cornhuskers waving their Big Ten flags and Bulls and Cyclones looking to run through to the next round.

Who will have enough to survive and advance? Will two Texas schools meet in the Elite 8? How big is the chip on the shoulder of the Fighting Irish? This very well could be the most challenging regional of them all. Time to dive in and see what dance music is playing in Birmingham 3.

Top seeds on alert

Texas is the No. 1 seed, making it the first time since 1987-88 that the Longhorns have earned the No. 1 spot in back-to-back tournaments. It is also the team’s 37^th appearance in the NCAA tournament, which is tied for second most among all NCAA Division I programs. Head coach Vic Schaefer’s team comes into the tournament at 31-3, and finished 15-1 in the SEC, sharing the regular season title with fellow No. 1 seed South Carolina. Super sophomore and SEC Player of the Year Madison Booker leads the way for Texas at 16.2 points per game. She shot 44% from behind the arc this season, which was an added boost to her already explosive game. Schaefer has a one-two punch in the post with 6’6 Kyla Oldacre and 6’4 Taylor Jones, both of whom lock down the paint and give Texas a scoring lift when called upon. The Longhorns are deep up and down the roster and when you play at their pace and intensity, the more bodies available the better.

The Longhorns will look to stay perfect at home (15-0 so far this year) as they start their journey to get to the Final Four against the winner of the play-in matchup of 16-seeds High Point and William & Mary. High Point (21-11) comes into the field of 68 as winners of the Big South regular season and tournament titles. William & Mary (15-18) is the only team in the tournament with a sub .500 record, but after capturing four straight wins in the Colonial Athletic Association tournament, the Tribe secured the automatic bid to punch its 2025 dance card.

To find the No. 2 seed in this region, you need to drive three hours north out of Austin on I-35 to Fort Worth and the campus of TCU. The Horned Frogs have accomplished a season of firsts for their program — first-ever Big 12 regular season title, first-ever conference tournament title, first-ever host of first and second rounds of the NCAA Tournament and back in the Big Dance for the first time since 2010. Second-year head coach Mark Campbell has engineered one of the biggest turnarounds in college basketball with a transfer-heavy roster full of talented veterans. Big 12 Player of the Year Hailey Van Lith led TCU to eight victories over ranked teams and she, along with Sedona Prince and others, will ride a 10-game winning streak into the tournament.

TCU has never made it out of the second round in the NCAA Tournament. To get to their Texas-sized matchup with the Longhorns in the Elite 8, they first have to dance with No. 15 seed Fairleigh Dickinson (29-3). The Knights are making their first-ever appearance in the Big Dance, after capturing both the NEC regular season and tournament titles. They beat Stonehill 66-49 in the finals to secure the automatic bid and trip to Forth Worth.

First round intrigue

Several games in round one of the Birmingham 3 Regional pique our interest, but we are anxiously awaiting the No. 7 versus No. 10 matchup of Louisville and Nebraska. Cardinals’ head coach Jeff Walz, who is used to taking his team to the Final Four, was an assistant at Nebraska from 1997-2001. His team comes into the tournament at 21-10 and 2-2 over their last four games. Senior guard Jayda Curry leads Louisville in scoring with 13.4 points per game. Nebraska (21-11 and 10-8 in the Big Ten) enters at the No. 10 seed, having won three in a row before an 85-74 loss to UCLA in the Big Ten Tournament. The Cornhuskers weathered the loss of talented sophomore Natalie Potts to an ACL injury back in November and won big road games at conference foes Maryland and Iowa, to name a few. This will be a true battle for 40 minutes, and we are also guaranteed that a team in red and white will move on to the round of 32 in Fort Worth.

Best potential Round of 32 matchup

No. 4 seed Ohio State had to have felt a wave of relief upon learning they would host first and second round games in Columbus. But to advance into the second week, No. 5 Tennessee could be waiting for themm and ready to pounce. If the Buckeyes can take care of No. 13 Montana State and the Lady Vols handle their business against South Florida, this showdown is set to be a good one. Tennessee comes into the tournament tied for second in the nation in scoring at 87.2 points per game, but first-year head coach Kim Caldwell’s team is just 1-3 over the last four games. The pace is fast and frenetic for the Vols, and the lineup changes rival that of hockey teams. Ohio State will go as junior Cotie McMahon (16.6 points per game) and co-Big Ten Freshman of the Year Jaloni Cambridge go — big games need big players to deliver. The Buckeyes are undefeated at home this season, so can Tennessee rattle them enough with their pace and pressure to neutralize the home court advantage? We wait to see if we get this highly-anticipated match up in the round of 32.

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Team to watch

Teams in the NCAA Tournament with a chip on their shoulder are the ones you do not want to see in your bracket. Enter the No. 3 seed Notre Dame Fighting Irish. After spending time as the No. 1 team in the AP Top 25 poll this season, Niele Ivey’s team went 2-3 over their last five games, including a 61-56 loss to Duke in the ACC Tournament. The season resume would say they were destined for a two-seed, but their late season slide, while other teams surged, pushed the Irish to the three-line. They will open the Big Dance with No. 14 Stephen F. Austin (29-5), winners of the Southland Conference tournament title. Notre Dame is loaded with talent and time off to re-group could be exactly what they need. ACC Player and Defensive Player of the Year Hannah Hidalgo (24.2 points per game), along with senior guard Olivia Miles will need to be the catalysts for Ivey to turn up the intensity and get this team all on the same page. If they can do that, don’t be surprised if the Irish dance a jig all over the bottom half of this Birmingham bracket.

Names to know

Rori Harmon, 5’6 senior – Texas: While Texas was a No. 1 seed last season, they did it without Harmon. The point guard missed last year’s tournament with an injury, but has returned this season with a vengeance. The Houston, TX native is tough-nosed and a relentless defender. Harmon ranks third on the team in scoring (9.4 points per game) and had dished out over 200 assists so far this season. Her return to the point guard spot allowed SEC Player of the Year Madison Booker to play off the ball in her natural position and it has paid dividends for the Longhorns. Harmon is an extension of her coach on the floor, so her opponents better be ready to bring it against her for 40 minutes.

Audi Crooks, 6’3 sophomore – Iowa State: A year ago, Crooks vaulted to the top of the storylines in the 2024 Big Dance with a 40-point performance in the Cyclones’ first round win over Maryland. She has followed up her record-setting freshman campaign with a stellar sophomore season, being named a unanimous first-team All-Big 12 selection for second straight year. She led the conference is scoring (23.2 points) and is one of the most efficient players in the country, shooting over 60% on the year. Solid footwork, good court awareness and great hands around the rim are what make her so effective for the Cyclones. Defensive game plans need to be on point if you want to get Crooks contained in the NCAA Tournament.

Alexis Markowski, 6’3 senior – Nebraska: For her entire career as a Cornhusker, the Lincoln, NE native has been a walking double-double. Markowski, a two-time All-Big Ten first team selection, holds the career record at Nebraska for double doubles. She averaged 16.5 points per game on the season and just shy of 8 boards per game. She has 3-point range and so her ability to score in multiple ways and crash the glass creates matchup problems for every opponent. And she is the emotional leader for the Huskers and understands what a win in the NCAA Tournament will mean for her hometown program.

Madison Conner, 5’11 senior – TCU: Ask anyone who faced TCU this season and they will tell you the Horned Frogs success is directly tied to the play of Conner. The sharp-shooter from Chandler, AZ led the Big 12 in 3-point percentage (45.2%) and made threes at 3.5 per game. Yet Conner’s game evolved this year to embrace the pick-and-roll system of TCU, and she became not only a distributor (second on the team in assists) but a scorer off the bounce. She will keep any defense honest, because if you do not guard her when she gets off the bus, you are leaving her open at your own risk.

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Sonia Citron, 6’1 senior – Notre Dame: There may not be a more complete guard in the nation than Citron, and one that has been as consistent for her entire career. The Eastchester, NY native can easily take over a game on both ends and is one of the best at finishing in the open floor. The All-ACC First Team and All-Defensive Team selection is averaging 13.8 points per game coming into the tournament. Citron is quick off the bounce — if you cannot contain her, she is going to score or you when you foul her you will pay the price — she shoots 89.7% from the line. 

Disruptors of the dance card

Setting a pace that is fast and furious for 40 minutes. Creating chaos and making teams feel so uncomfortable they want to crawl under the bench and hide. That is what No. 5 seed Tennessee has been doing to opponents all season as the new-look Lady Vols, under head coach Kim Caldwell. The first-year head coach has owned the system from day one and her players have embraced it. They raced to a 13-0 start this season before the reality of life in the SEC set in, but you could see how explosive this team could be throughout the season. Their 80-76 win over UConn on Feb. 6 was a great example of how they can control a game from start to finish. Four players are averaging double figures, led by sophomore guard Talaysia Cooper (16.7 per game). If Tennessee can play at a high level and make teams uncomfortable in this tournament, their dance card can stay full right into the Sweet 16 and beyond.

The road to Tampa: who makes it there?

The hardest part of picking an NCAA Tournament bracket is trying to predict who can best navigate the road to the Final Four in every region, and then making those choices with your head, not your heart. The twists and turns of the journey are many, and teams do not want to turn off the dance music. Will we find a Cinderella who can survive and advance to surprise us all? Here is our best prediction of what happens in the Birmingham 3 Regional:

First Round Winners: Texas, Illinois, Tennessee, Ohio State, Iowa State, Notre Dame, Nebraska, TCU.

Sweet 16: Texas, Tennessee, Notre Dame, TCU.

Elite Eight: Texas, Notre Dame.

Final Four Bound: Notre Dame.

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