In a series with 10 Olympians, what will it take for the Las Vegas Aces to advance?

Season series review

The Aces won the regular season series against the Storm, defeating Seattle in three out of four tries. Las Vegas averaged 82 points in the four games against Seattle while giving up an average of 78. While the average difference in points scored between the two teams was just four, only one game was decided by single digits. The Aces only loss to the Storm came early in the season without Chelsea Gray but the two teams only played once post-Olympic Break in a game that was just five days prior to the start of the series.

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In fact, neither team has faced the other at full strength. The third game they played against each other was the closest as the Aces had all their stars as did the Storm but Gabby Williams was still in France as the game was prior to the Olympic break. The two teams met just five days ago but Seattle was without both Jewell Loyd and Ezi Magbegor, who were out due to injury.

In the regular season series, Aces star A’ja Wilson averaged 25.3 points and 11.8 rebounds per game. She shot 47.3% from the field and took 35 free throws in the four games combined. Jackie Young also had some big games against the Storm scoring 32 and 27 in two games but also having a game with just three points. For the Storm, Jewell Loyd had two games scoring 25 or more points but also had a game where she scored just one point, like Young.

“They’re a very scary team. They have a lot of experience,” Becky Hammon said of her team’s first round opponent. “They have a legit big three, big four. Gabby Williams certainly adds another element to them, especially defensively. They’re playing really well. They definitely pose some problems. They’re well coached, so I expect nothing but a dog fight. My early thoughts are, if we don’t take care of a few actions and a few personnel things, they can beat you, and they can put a lot of points on the board fast. So as usual, the name of the game, especially with their offensive tools is going to be defense and rebounding.”

Matchups to watch

For the series between the four and five seed, these two teams have a ton of stars, including 10 Olympians and six of the top 18 scorers in the WNBA. Where it all starts for the Aces is their MVP, A’ja Wilson. She will be matched up with either Ezi Magbegor or Nneka Ogwumike. Magbegor has the speed to keep up with Wilson and has been stout on defense this year for the Storm. However, she missed the last two games of the regular season with a concussion, so her status is up in the air. Magbegor averaged 14.3 points in the three games she played against the Aces but didn’t have a block in two of the three games.

Ogwumike meanwhile is more of an offensive threat for the Storm, averaging 15.3 over the four games played against the Aces and 16.7 on the season. She has the ability to stretch the floor but doesn’t have the speed Magbegor does which will make it harder for her to keep up with Wilson. The three of them are all excellent defenders but also efficient scorers as each of them finished in the top 10 in field goal percentage for the season. The matchup in the post will go a long way to deciding this series.

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The other key matchup to watch will be Jackie Young against Jewell Loyd. Loyd was the sixth leading scorer in the WNBA this past season after leading the league in scoring a year ago. As was stated earlier, Loyd had two big games against the Aces but also had a game where she scored just one point. Loyd is another played who didn’t play in the game five days ago as she was injured.

Young also had two huge games against the Storm in the regular season but also had one bad game, just like Loyd. However, in Young’s case, her bad game came on a day where she was so sick that Becky Hammon forced her to sit the next game to recover. Young has become one of the better perimeter defenders over the last few years and will be challenged to slow down everything Loyd has in her bag. Loyd scores at all three levels and while she probably won’t score one point again, slowing her down will be key to the Aces winning the series.

“I don’t think that we’ve all been on the same page for a game,” Kelsey Plum said of the improvement of the Aces play this year. “A[ja]’s been doing her thing all year, but maybe it’ll be, one of us, or two of us, but not really all of us at the same time. That’s what was so unique about last year, almost every game…everyone was unbelievable, you know? I get it, every season is different, and you have to give credit to the league, I think too, like, people have adjusted, played differently…I just think that the league has gotten more physical, more athletic, and played at a faster pace. So, you know, as guards, you have to adjust. What worked last year, doesn’t work this year. I think that we’re getting better slowly and especially defensively when we are able to get stops, that’s when we played in transition in the past couple years. That’s been our bread and butter.”

Stats that will decide the series

These two teams are very close statistically as well as record wise. They are both two of the top five offenses and defenses in the WNBA. However, the two key stats that will decide this series are three-point shooting and turnovers. The Storm are the fourth worst team in the WNBA in three pointers made per game at just over six. In the four regular season games, the Storm made an average 3.75 triples per game. 

In the game just five days ago, the Storm didn’t make a three until midway through the third quarter, missing their first six attempts from behind the arc. The Aces went to a zone defense late in the game due to the Storm’s lack of three-point shooting which helped them secure that victory. Las Vegas will need to continue to limit the Storm from behind the arc while knocking down some triples of their own. They averaged 7.25 threes made per game against Seattle this year, which was two below their season average of 9.4.

The other key stat will be turnovers as the Storm were tied for first in the WNBA in turnovers forced per game during the regular season. Seattle has a ton of great defenders on their team with the likes Ogwumike, Skylar Diggins-Smith, Williams and Magbegor. They were third in the league in points scored off opponent turnovers. The Aces meanwhile were the number one team in the league in the fewest giveaways per game.

During the regular season series, the Aces averaged 12.5 turnovers per game, which is one over their season average. The Storm scored 13.75 points per game off those Aces turnovers, which was well below their season average of points scored off turnovers. If the Aces can keep their turnover numbers down, it will go a long way towards beating the Storm and advancing to the semifinals.

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X-Factor for the Aces

For the Aces, their X-Factor will be their bench. This Aces’ bench is the strongest it’s been in the Becky Hammon era. It starts with the no longer retired Tiffany Hayes. The 35-year-old guard has come to Las Vegas and looked every bit the star she had been in Atlanta and Connecticut. She’s had 11 games where she scored double digits coming off the bench, part of the reason she is the favorite for sixth woman of year. She didn’t have any big games against Seattle during the regular season but her ability to get downhill and play stout perimeter defense is what has allowed her to have such a big impact on the Aces.

Las Vegas will also look for big performances from whichever of Kiah Stokes, Megan Gustafson and Alysha Clark doesn’t get the start. Post Olympic break, Hammon started changing who the fifth starter was going to be alongside the Aces “Core Four”. It has changed based on the opponent, and it will be interesting to see if it stays the same or changes game to game within a series. 

Each of the three does something different but all have greatly impacted the Aces. Clark has incredible defensive versatility and can knock down the three ball at a high rate. Stokes plays physical post defense and can grab a ton of rebounds. Gustafson has a versatile offensive game and can battle with bigger post players. All of those traits will come in very handy during this series and all three will need to play well if the Aces want to win the series.

“This team is probably the most talented team that we’ve had since I’ve been here. The depth, just the quality of player from one through 12 is really good,” Hammon said. “[It’s important] to fine tune your bench and get them ready, because we know anybody’s number can be called over the course of the next month. For everybody to stay sharp and go out there and shoot the ball and share the ball and defend the way they did, rebound the ball. They should have a whole lot of confidence, not only in themselves, but in in the person next to them.”

Series prediction

The experience the Aces’ core has both playing together and in the playoffs is what will be enough to push them over the edge to win this series. Las Vegas has won nine of their last 10 coming into the playoffs and seem to have found some of what had been missing earlier this year. It’s very possible Seattle wins a game as the Aces haven’t been as good at home as they’ve been on the road this year. However, the Aces have the best player on the court and that will be enough to push them on to the next round.