SEC notebook: The regular-season title race is a tight one

South Carolina or Texas will win the SEC regular season title, and the programs will share the title should they both win their remaining regular season games. However, the No. 1 seed in next week’s SEC Tournament in Greenville, S.C. could be decided by a coin toss by SEC commissioner Greg Sankey. Meanwhile, LSU sits at No. 3, while Kentucky will seek to hold off its SEC foes from the No. 4 spot while Alabama, Oklahoma, Mississippi and Tennessee hope to land one final punch at elevating in the standings as the regular season culminates.

SEC’s projected top four teams (double-byes)

Texas (27-2, 13-1)

The Longhorns conquered their daunting four-game slate of AP ranked opponents — defeating Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Kentucky and LSU — this month and earned the top spot in this week’s women’s college basketball AP poll for the first time in 21 years. However, Texas has a couple more pieces to add to its puzzle as the regular season comes to an end. While the Longhorns’ final two games are not against ranked opponents, Texas must win both and hope for South Carolina to lose one of its last two to claim the SEC regular-season title and the No. 1 seed in the conference tournament. If both teams win out this week, the top seed in next week’s tournament would come down to the coin flip.

• Games this week for Texas: at Mississippi State (Feb. 27), vs. Florida (March 2)

South Carolina (25-3, 13-1)

The last time the Gamecocks did not capture a SEC regular-season title or the league’s top seed in the conference tournament was in the 2020-21 campaign when Texas A&M finished at the top in Gary Blair’s second-to-last season leading the program. That year, however, South Carolina earned the No. 2 seed and won the SEC Tournament. With South Carolina splitting head-to-head matchups with Texas this season, the Gamecocks must win both of their final Quad 1 matchups or hope the Longhorns drop a game to the Bulldogs or Gators this weekend to secure the regular-season title. If Texas and South Carolina both win their final games, the fate of Dawn Staley’s squad securing the No. 1 seed in the tournament will come from a coin toss.

• Games this week for South Carolina: at Ole Miss (Feb. 27), vs. Kentucky (March 2)

LSU (27-2, 12-2)

The Tigers enter the final week of the season sitting at No. 3 in the SEC standings and two games ahead of Kentucky at No. 4. LSU holds all tie breakers against teams beneath them in the league standings with two final matchups this week against teams vying to improve their SEC tourney stock. If things go as projected, LSU will be No. 3 seed in next week’s tournament. Even more, several pieces of history could be made for the Tigers this weekend that include LSU notching the most regular season wins in program history during the NCAA era. The Tigers double-double queen Aneesah Morrow sits one double-double shy of joining Oklahoma’s Courtney Paris as the only players with 100+ double-doubles in D-I history

• Games this week for LSU: at Alabama (Feb. 27), vs. Mississippi (March 2)

Kentucky (21-5, 10-4)

February has been a grueling month for the Wildcats, a program that suffered losses to Mississippi, Texas and most recently LSU on Sunday. As Kentucky ends the regular season, things don’t get easier with two critical matchups against AP top-11 opponents that include the reigning NCAA champ. For now, the Wildcats firmly sit at No. 4 in the SEC standings and one game ahead of Alabama at No. 5. For what it is worth, the last time Kentucky defeated Tennessee at home was Feb. 11, 2021 (71-56) and the last time the Wildcats defeated the Vols overall was the 2022 SEC Tournament before becoming the eventual tournament champion.

• Games this week for Kentucky: vs. Tennessee (Feb. 27), at South Carolina (March 2)

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SEC’s projected middle class (first-round bye)

Alabama (22-6, 9-5)

Behind the SEC’s top four sits the Crimson Tide, a team that is in a three-way tie — Oklahoma and Mississippi — for No. 5 in the standings. This is a decisive final weekend for Alabama with two AP top-13 matchups and sitting at 4-6 in the Quad 1 category this season. The Crimson Tide are still vying for a top four seed in the SEC tournament. However, Alabama must win its final two contests and get some help from teams above them. As it stands currently, although Alabama and Oklahoma are one of two teams tied for fifth, both programs defeated Mississippi. Meaning, the tiebreaker between the two teams cannot be broken, despite the Crimson Tide facing the Sooners for the first time on Sunday in their regular season finale.

• Games this week for Alabama: vs. LSU (Feb. 27), at Oklahoma (March 2)

Oklahoma (21-6, 9-5)

The Sooners enter the week as winners of their last six games and tied for No. 5 in the SEC standings with Alabama and Mississippi. Oklahoma has a chance to pick up its sixth Quad 1 win on Sunday against the Crimson Tide. However, Oklahoma must first take care of business on Thursday against the Gators. While the Sooners are projected to be the No. 6 seed in the SEC tourney, it will be important for Oklahoma to pick up wins in the final race for SEC tourney implications as well as well maintaining its projected spot as a top 16 team in the women’s NCAA Tournament.

• Games this week for Oklahoma: at Florida (Feb. 27), vs. Alabama (March 2)

Mississippi (18-8, 9-5)

The Rebels’ final SEC slate of the regular season is one of the toughest in the country with matchups against the reigning women’s NCAA champs and a road matchup against the 2023 NCAA champion. If it’s any team — one that plays with passion and great edge defensively — that could make things interesting in the final weekend and move up in the standings with wins and some help from other teams above them, it is Mississippi. Currently, the Rebels are projected to be the No. 7 seed in next week’s SEC tournament. However, the Rebels’ goal is to be a top four team competing in the women’s Final Four in Tampa, Fla. The continuation of Mississippi’s goal starts with potentially stealing one or both of its final games and improving its NCAA Tournament résumé. Currently, the Rebels sit at 12 in NET rankings with the second top 16 reveal on Thursday.

• Games this week for Mississippi: vs. South Carolina (Feb. 27), at LSU (March 2)

Tennessee (21-6, 8-6)

The Volunteers have won their last four games with the most notable victories coming against Mississippi and Alabama. Currently, Tennessee is projected to be the No. 8 seed in the SEC tournament, sitting two games behind Kentucky and one game behind the Crimson Tide, Sooners and the Rebels. With two games this week, should Tennessee win out along with some help from other teams, the Vols could potentially climb as high as the fourth or fifth spot ahead of the league tournament.

Thursday’s road matchup against Kentucky will help in that process and gives Tennessee an opportunity to pick up a seventh Quad 1 win this season. Kentucky has lost three of its last five games. While it will be Kim Caldwell’s first matchup against Kentucky as the Vols head coach, Tennessee is 1-3 in games against Kenny Brooks-coached teams. However, the Vols have won six of the past eight matchups against Kentucky entering Thursday’s contest.

• Games this week for Tennessee: at Kentucky (Feb. 27), vs. Georgia (March 2)

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SEC’s projected third tier (first-round action)

Mississippi State (19-9, 6-8)

The Bulldogs enter the final week of the season coming off a win on Sunday against Texas A&M. Mississippi State is projected to be the No. 9 seed in the conference tournament, holding the tiebreaker against Vanderbilt after beating the Commodores earlier this season. From a national outlook, the Bulldogs are projected to be a No. 10 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Texas head coach Vic Schaefer will face his former team in a showdown on Thursday in Starkville.

• Games this week for Mississippi State: vs. Texas (Feb. 27), at Auburn (March 2)

Vanderbilt (19-9, 6-8)

The Commodores head into the final week of the season with back-to-back losses and sitting at No. 10 in the standings and one of SEC’s 10 projected teams to earn a spot in the NCAA Tournament. Vanderbilt’s recent losses came against two ranked SEC teams in Oklahoma and South Carolina. Freshman sensation Mikayla Blakes is 20 points away from breaking the program’s single-season scoring record (671) set by Harriet Brumfield in the 1981-82 season. Khamil Pierre’s 14 double-doubles this season is tied with Commodores assistant Ashley Earley for the most in a season since the 1999-00 campaign. Look for the duo to help them close out the regular season strong.

• Games this week for Vanderbilt: vs. Texas A&M (Feb. 27), at Missouri (March 2)

Florida (14-14, 5-9)

The Gators’ final slate of SEC games will be tough. Florida, a team coming off a tough loss to Tennessee, faces the Sooners on Thursday before a regular-season finale on the road against the Longhorns. Florida sits firmly at No. 11 in the SEC standings and is projected to earn that spot in the SEC tourney. However, a win in either of its final two contests would give Florida its first Quad 1 victory of the season and the Gators their first win against a ranked opponent since 2022.

• Games this week for Florida: vs. Oklahoma (Feb. 27), at Texas (March 2)

Auburn (12-15, 3-11)

The Tigers have lost their last four games with three coming against three AP top-18 opponents in Oklahoma, Tennessee and most recently on Sunday against Alabama. However, of Auburn’s four losses, one was a two-point loss to the Sooners (73-71) while a late-game foul in regulation resulted in a 10-point overtime loss to the Commodores. Auburn has the chance to add two more SEC wins to close the season strong, which would give them a boost of motivation heading into next week’s conference tournament.

• Games this week for Auburn: at Georgia (Feb. 27), vs. Mississippi State (March 2)

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Texas A&M (10-16, 3-11)

Since the loss of Aicha Coulibaly following the Aggies’ loss on Jan. 26 to LSU, Texas A&M has lost eight consecutive games. The Aggies close out the season on Thursday against the Commodores on the road before returning home for their regular-season finale against the Razorbacks. Texas A&M is projected to enter the SEC Tournament at No. 13 as Auburn defeated the Aggies in the head-to-head matchup between the two teams.

• Games this week for Texas A&M: at Vanderbilt (Feb. 27), vs. Arkansas (March 2)

Georgia (10-18, 2-12)

The Bulldogs enter the final week of the regular season coming off three consecutive losses that include being limited to 10 points in the second half of their loss (57-26) on Monday to Texas. But on a positive note, UGA’s defense also held Texas to its lowest points total in SEC play this season. As it stands currently, Georgia — a team that sits at No. 14 in the standings — holds the tiebreaker for that spot as the Bulldogs defeated both Missouri and Arkansas this season.

• Games this week for Georgia: vs. Auburn (Feb. 27), at Tennessee (March 2)

Missouri (13-16, 2-12)

The Tigers notched their third consecutive loss and their fourth loss by single digits in their last seven games. Even more, Missouri will be searching for its next head coach after Robin Pingeton informed the administration that she was stepping away from the program following the end of this season. Still, Missouri has a chance to tack on two more regular-season wins before heading into the SEC tournament next week.

• Games this week for Missouri: at Arkansas (Feb. 27), vs. Vanderbilt (March 2)

Arkansas (9-20, 2-12)

The Razorbacks have lost six straight games entering the final week of the regular season. Despite the struggles for Arkansas to win on the court, Izzy Higginbottom has continued to be one of the nation’s leading scorers, averaging 23.6 points per game (fifth in the country) and sitting only behind South Dakota’s Grace Larkins, Southern California’s JuJu Watkins, Notre Dame’s Hannah Hidalgo and Florida State’s Ta’Niya Latson. Arkansas will close out the regular season with its final two games before entering the SEC tournament as the No. 16 seed.

• Games this week for Arkansas: vs. Missouri (Feb. 27), at Texas A&M (March 2)

SEC schedule this week

Thursday, Feb. 27

• Auburn at Georgia
• Tennessee at Kentucky
• Oklahoma at Florida
• Texas at Mississippi State
• Texas A&M at Vanderbilt
• Missouri at Arkansas
• South Carolina at Mississippi 
• LSU at Alabama

Sunday, March 2

• Georgia at Tennessee
• Florida at Texas
• Kentucky at South Carolina
• Alabama at Oklahoma
• Vanderbilt at Missouri
• Mississippi State at Auburn
• Arkansas at Texas A&M
• Ole Miss at LSU