Sunday Notes, Week 15: Let’s talk about the future, with Los Angeles, Chicago and more

Tankathon Check-in

Team:	Odds of No. 1 draft pick:	Odds of top-two draft pick*:
Los Angeles	44.2%	75.8%
Dallas	27.6%	58.6%
Chicago	17.8%	40.8%
Washington	10.4%	24.9%

Since Dallas receives whichever of its and Chicago’s pick ends up as the better selection, it has a 45.4% chance of winning the lottery and a 99.4% chance of landing a top-two selection.

Chicago Sky

Bright spots: 

• Chennedy Carter played and starred in a full season.
• The two rookie bigs both flashed strong WNBA-level play.
• Extra first-round pick (from Connecticut) in a fairly deep draft class.
• Enormous cap space.

Concerns: 

• The three best 25-and-under players on this team probably cannot play together in a winning lineup.
• Teamwide focus and buy-in clearly deteriorated over the last few weeks of the season despite a playoff spot on the line.
• Is Dana Evans a part of this team’s future or not? 
• Probably not a concern for another couple of years, but still one of the least attractive destinations for free agents.

The vibes turnaround that the Sky experienced between the aftermath of the Kahleah Copper trade and the end of this season was no less than remarkable. The team has young players, exciting players, players who energize and expand the fanbase. That is more than can be said of plenty of teams around the WNBA.

The question is what comes next. Chicago still has a couple of years to figure out how viable an Angel Reese–Kamilla Cardoso front court combo is, but sooner or later someone is going to have to learn to shoot if this is going to be a contending combination. Having a non-shooter in Chennedy Carter leading the backcourt just makes that situation tougher. There were signs throughout this season both for and against Teresa Weatherspoon being the coach who could mitigate that.

Hope Rating: ⭐⭐⭐☆☆

---

Celebrate Alex Morgan and save 13% off The IX

USWNT legend Alex Morgan announced her retirement from professional soccer on Sept. 5. In honor of her incredible career and lasting impact off the field, you can save 13% when you subscribe to The IX through the end of September.

That’s 13% off daily coverage of women’s sports like soccer, tennis, basketball, golf, hockey and gymnastics.

---

Dallas Wings

Bright spots:

• Satou Sabally has suffered a barrage of injuries but remains an automatic All-WNBA talent.
• Maddy Siegrist looks like a key piece of a future contender.
• Nearly 50% chance of landing Paige Bueckers (assuming she doesn’t stay at UConn for 2025-26).
• Arike Ogunbowale demonstrably improved on defense.

Concerns:

• Over $300,000 in 2025 is guaranteed to two centers who are not starting-caliber players on a contending roster.
• The team’s three best players (Sabally, Ogunbowale, Siegrist) are all poor defenders.
• The other two 2023 first-round picks, Stephanie Soares and Lou Lopez Sénéchal, were unplayable.
• Dallas is arguably the least-favored free agency destination.

Here we are again. The Wings have an incoherent roster, are receiving questionable returns on recent first-round picks and are inspiring zero confidence in their player development and coaching. Just like they were after 2022, and after 2021, and after 2020.

I am in the bargaining stage of grief when it comes to Paige Bueckers being on the Dallas roster next season. A Bueckers-Ogunbowale-Sabally-Siegrist lineup could work very well, if they had a good complementary center, the likes of which is not currently on the roster. At this point, it’s just hard to imagine the Wings getting anywhere under current management. In the meanwhile, they’ll be having different versions of the same season over and over again, ad infinitum.

Hope Rating: ⭐⭐☆☆☆

---

The Next, a 24/7/365 women’s basketball newsroom

The Next: A basketball newsroom brought to you by The IX. 24/7/365 women’s basketball coverage, written, edited and photographed by our young, diverse staff and dedicated to breaking news, analysis, historical deep dives and projections about the game we love.

---

Los Angeles Sparks

Bright spots:

• Cameron Brink and Rickea Jackson look like future All-Stars.
• Nearly 50% chance of landing Paige Bueckers (assuming she doesn’t stay at UConn for 2025-26).
• Between Jackson and Rae Burrell, there are reasons to be optimistic about player development.

Concerns:

• Only one player on the team’s full-season roster is an unrestricted free agent, which given its 2024 record isn’t a positive.
• Lack of dedicated practice facility and no plans to build one are going to matter in 2026 free agent market.

The Sparks are in a pretty similar situation now to where the Fever were at this point last year, just to a lesser extent: They have a high-level center coming off a very strong rookie season, though for Los Angeles, Cameron Brink’s campaign was cut short by a torn ACL; an impact scorer on the wing, in this case Rickea Jackson; and quality depth pieces to support the stars.

This hinges on landing Bueckers, though. If that happens, the Sparks are instantly a playoff team, one only a couple years away from title contention. If their lottery pick falls to No. 2 or No. 3 instead, things get a lot tougher, and Los Angeles will likely join most of the league in relying on the 2026 free agency class to make the difference.

Hope Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆

---

Get 24/7 soccer coverage with The Equalizer

The Next is partnering with The Equalizer to bring more women’s sports stories to your inbox. Subscribers to The Next receive 50% off their subscription to The Equalizer for 24/7 coverage of women’s soccer.

---

Washington Mystics

Bright spots:

• Going from an 0-12 start to missing the playoffs by only one game is a pretty good sign for a team’s head coach.
• Impressive player development, with Aaliyah Edwards, Jade Melbourne, Emily Engstler and Sika Koné all looking like long-term contributors.

Concerns:

• Shakira Austin, the best player on the roster, played more games in her rookie season than the next two combined.
• Without Bueckers, what is this team’s path to adding a primary initiator in the backcourt?

Three months ago, the Mystics had just broken their 0-12 start to the season but were still heavy favorites to land top-two lottery odds; along with owning Atlanta’s first-round pick, it was not unrealistic to think that they could end up with a nearly 60% chance of winning the lottery. Instead, they’re sitting at just over 10% and didn’t even make the playoffs. That is a failure of a season from a big-picture perspective.

From a narrower point of view, though, there were a lot of successes in 2024. Washington developed an entire rotation’s worth of talented young front court players, and still have a plethora of great supporting players on the wing. There is cap space and trade pieces enough that if any high-impact guard becomes available, the Mystics should be a key player. But crucially, they don’t control their own destiny.

Hope Rating: ⭐⭐⭐☆☆

---

Add Locked On Women’s Basketball to your daily routine

Here at The Next, in addition to the 24/7/365 written content our staff provides, we also host the daily Locked On Women’s Basketball podcast. Join us Monday through Saturday each week as we discuss all things WNBA, collegiate basketball, basketball history and much more. Listen wherever you find podcasts or watch on YouTube.

---