Three keys for Texas to beat South Carolina in the Final Four

Since 2009-10, there have only been six instances of power-conference teams playing each other four times in one season, according to data provided by Her Hoop Stats. Three of those series ended in the Final Four: Notre Dame beat UConn in 2011 and 2012, and the Huskies flipped the script in 2013. (“Power-conference” refers to teams from the ACC, BIG EAST, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12 and SEC.)

“It’s like the true test to see, this time of year, who is genuinely the best team and who’s the toughest,” Texas senior forward Taylor Jones told The Next on Thursday. “And I think between both of us, we’re both very physical, we’re both great defensive teams, and so it’ll be really interesting to see how it plays out.”

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Both the Longhorns and Gamecocks are No. 1 seeds. But the Gamecocks have a 57.8% chance to win and are projected to do so by 2.3 points.

Entering the NCAA Tournament, Texas players said they had a chip on their shoulder from their most recent loss to the Gamecocks, and they’ve played well to beat William & Mary, Illinois, Tennessee and TCU. South Carolina has championship experience from its 38-0 season in 2023-24, but it looked vulnerable in this year’s Sweet 16 against Maryland and Elite Eight against Duke.

Here are three questions that will help determine whether Texas advances to its first national championship game since winning it all in 1986 or falls to South Carolina for a third time this season.

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Will the Texas defense continue to stifle South Carolina offensively?

Texas enters Friday’s game as one of the best defensive teams in the country. The Longhorns allow just 77.9 points per 100 possessions, which ranks third nationally.

One big way they do that is by pressuring the ball, which takes opponents out of their offensive rhythm. They give up just 9.7 assists per game while forcing 20.8 turnovers per game. Both numbers rank in the top 20 nationally, and combined, the Longhorns allow the lowest assist-to-turnover ratio in the country at 0.47-to-1.

“Coach Schaefer’s way of doing defense … is the denying of the [ball],” freshman forward Justice Carlton told The Next on Thursday. “Don’t let your man catch it. Like, work your hardest not to let your man catch it. And I think everybody just has that common idea, and so we work really well together.”

The leader of that defense is senior point guard Rori Harmon, who pressures the ball full-court and averages 2.2 steals per game.

“I’ve coached some great, great players in my time, some great defenders. Rori Harmon is the best I’ve ever coached,” Texas head coach Vic Schaefer told reporters on March 21. “She’s not only great on the ball; she’s a great help defender and she’s a great sealer. She takes away driving lanes while still being able to cover out on her own player. … And you know what? She does it because she plays her guts out.”

Harmon and the rest of the guards’ defense sets the tone for the whole group, Jones said. And when the defense is firing on all cylinders, “It’s one of the best feelings. … It’s really cool when all five players buy in and you get the stop and you can see the other team — the fear in their eyes.”

In three games this season against South Carolina, Texas has held the Gamecocks to an average of 64.3 points per game, well below their season average of 79.8. Texas has also forced South Carolina into 15.7 turnovers per game, well above its average of 12.4.

However, South Carolina’s most turnover-prone game against Texas was in the first meeting in January, and the Gamecocks had their most assists against Texas in the most recent meeting. With how well the teams know each other, it’s worth watching whether South Carolina continues to improve at running offense against Texas’ pressure or whether Texas can fluster South Carolina under the season’s brightest lights.

How brightly will Madison Booker shine?

Though Booker is only a sophomore, she already has the resume of a senior. The 6’1 forward won Big 12 Player of the Year last season and SEC Player of the Year this season. She is also a two-time AP and WBCA All-American, and she won the Cheryl Miller Award last season as the country’s best small forward.

This season, Booker is averaging 16.5 points, 6.8 rebounds, 2.8 assists and 1.6 steals per game on 46.5% shooting from the field and 41.0% from 3-point range.

“Her short corner baseline shot, I mean, she can get that off any time she wants,” Jones said.

“She’s literally everywhere,” Carlton said. “There will be certain times where I’m like, ‘Oh, we missed that offensive rebound,’ and then here Madison comes. … Her energy and her willingness to just keep the play alive [are] honestly just amazing.”

In Texas’ win over South Carolina on Feb. 9, Booker had 20 points, 11 rebounds, three assists and two steals. But in the two losses to the Gamecocks, she averaged 8.5 points and 8.5 rebounds. Jones said the key to getting Booker going on Friday is to play through her and let her facilitate, rather than “force her to take shots that she didn’t have to take.” The latter was a problem in the SEC Tournament final, but the Longhorns studied the film and have a different game plan this time.

South Carolina has paid heavy attention to Booker all season, holding her to 25.9% shooting from the field across the three games. And Gamecocks head coach Dawn Staley indicated on Thursday that Booker has her team’s full attention again.

“She can score the basketball with the best of them,” Staley told reporters. “She can play multiple positions. So she’s versatile. She can facilitate. She’s a really good rebounder. She’s a difficult matchup. You have to play her [with] one and a half players. You can’t just straight up play her.”

The Longhorns have plenty of players around Booker who can step up — look no further than the Elite Eight, when reserve center Kyla Oldacre had 9 crucial points and five rebounds to help Texas stave off TCU’s comeback. Or look at the Sweet 16, when freshmen Jordan Lee and Bryanna Preston combined for 25 points, six rebounds and five assists against Tennessee. But Booker getting going on Friday would open up the floor for all the Longhorns against a South Carolina defense that is nearly as stingy as Texas’.

As Carlton put it: “She sets the tone every game. … I think everybody looks up to Booker. There’s nobody like her.”

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Will and-ones outweigh threes?

Just 14% of Texas’ scoring attempts are threes, which is the lowest in all of Division I. South Carolina doesn’t have a particularly high 3-point rate, either, but it has still attempted 237 more threes this season than Texas has.

Instead, the Longhorns’ dribble-drive offense excels at drawing fouls and scoring from the free-throw line. Texas draws 21.1 fouls per game, which ranks fourth nationally, and it gets more than 20% of its points from the line.

“[I] can’t imagine guarding dribble-drive. It seems like it would suck,” Carlton said. “So I think us getting downhill pretty much every position, it’s frustrating for other teams.”

Texas’ penchant for drawing fouls was pivotal in its win over the Gamecocks this season. South Carolina committed 20 fouls, including two first-quarter fouls each for starters Te-Hina Paopao and Sania Feagin.

“We had to change up how we just substitute,” Staley said on Thursday about the foul trouble in that game. “And that throws our cadence off.”

In that game, the Gamecocks attempted their most 3-pointers of the season against Texas. They only shot 5-for-19, but it was a big advantage on the scoreboard over the Longhorns’ 0-for-4 mark. Friday’s game could feature a similar battle between 3-pointers and old-school 3-point plays, and it could go a long way toward determining whose season continues in the national championship game.

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