How Caitlin Clark, Indiana Fever match up with Alyssa Thomas’ Connecticut Sun

Ironically, where Indiana wants to go is where their opponent currently is. They want to be playoff mainstays, the contenders. Connecticut, who reached the WNBA Finals two years ago and has championship experience all over its roster and staff, is a model for what many franchises hope to be.

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Those differences between the Sun and Fever will be a major story in the series. The Fever’s starting five has played a total of zero — yes, zero — playoff games in total. They have some postseason experience between Erica Wheeler, Temi Fagbenle (a 2017 champion), Damiris Dantas and Katie Lou Samuelson. But it is nothing compared to the Sun. Taka Kauri of Indiana Fever Blog posted on X that the Fever have over 200 fewer games of playoff experience than the Sun (222 to 19).

“We try to get one percent better every day,” Fever head coach Christie Sides said Thursday night. She didn’t think her team did that during their regular season finale. “If we were playing Connecticut tonight and the way they are going to play with their experience, it would not have been a good night for us.”

Beyond the experience gap, this series will be defined by a dramatic clash of styles. It’s tough to find better foils in the first round than the Fever and the Sun. Connecticut blasted Indiana on the opening night of the WNBA season, and their duels have been fascinating ever since.

On one side sits the Alyssa Thomas-led Sun. Thomas can do a little bit of everything, and her team finished the 2024 WNBA campaign with the league’s best defensive rating at 94.1. Head coach Stephanie White can build clever yet disciplined defenses.

In the backcourt, Connecticut has DiJonai Carrington and Tyasha Harris, two excellent defensive guards. Throughout the season, Carrington was one of the best players in the league at pestering star rookie Caitlin Clark. She was mobile and physical in tandem when guarding the All-Star ball handler and made her uncomfortable. When Carrington was matched up elsewhere or on the bench, Harris took the matchup well. The other one of those players can try to slow down Kelsey Mitchell and her 19.2 points per game, and that doesn’t even account for the defensive brilliance of Brionna Jones or the rock-solid play of Thomas and DeWanna Bonner on the less glamorous end of the floor.

“They just pay really hard. They’re going to do some different things with ball screens, they’re going to trap some,” Clark said of the Sun. “They’re just going to be aggressive. The whole group, they know what they are doing. They play smart.”

On the other side is Clark and the Fever. Their success comes from the offensive side of the ball. Indiana started 1-8 and looked wobbly — since then, they have the second-best offensive rating in the WNBA.

The Fever want to run. They adore the open floor. Clark has made frequent jokes about sprinting in her personal life throughout the season, and ironically it is reflective of how the team plays. The Fever ranked second in pace in the regular season and were efficient in those moments. Mitchell’s speed, Clark’s passing and the team’s general IQ and focus in the open floor are tough to contain.

“The pace we play with tonight has to be fast. That’s where we’re going to be able to score a lot of our points, so that has to be a main focus,” Clark said of Connecticut earlier in the season. “I think the first three times we played them, we didn’t play with much pace.”

Sides’ team really took off after the Olympic break, Since then, Indiana has the first-ranked offense by far. They have shot 39.9% from long range during that span, first in the league. It’s an unsustainable number, but the Fever generate open threes for decent to good shooters often. They can, on any given night, have variance on their side and beat anybody—they toppled Connecticut, New York and Minnesota late in the campaign thanks to their unstoppable style.

This series could end up being decided by which team’s strength is, well, strongest. If Connecticut’s defense slows the Fever, it could be a short best-of-three. If Indiana’s offense cuts up the Sun, this series could come back to Indianapolis or even be an early exit for White’s team.

In between those extremes is where this series will be interesting. The Sun were the fifth-best offense this season, a fine number that the team attempted to boost by acquiring Marina Mabrey mid-season. They aren’t elite on offense, but they’re close.

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The Fever, meanwhile, were dreadful on defense. They finished 11th on that end of the floor, and they were dead last for a month or so to open the season. From the start of July until now, the squad has been the ninth-best defense—which is an improvement, yet still not where Indiana wants to be.

If the clash of styles comes out in the wash, those last two facts could be the difference. Connecticut has enough to have a consistent offense on top of their elite defense. The Indiana Fever haven’t had repeated defense success this campaign — their record when allowing 86 or more points is 5-19. If they can’t dominate offensively, they struggle to win with any sort of frequency.

“They’ve got great players. They can play inside and out. AT [Alyssa Thomas] can run the point, and they can run some of the inverted actions. That’s hard to guard,” Sides said of the Sun back in August.

The less experienced Fever enter the series as the underdogs as a result. The Sun have more ways they can win. But Indiana shouldn’t be written off. The team’s firepower has given just about every squad in the league fits at some point this season, and they’re never out of a game as a result. They finished with 16 clutch wins this season, which led the league.

If Indiana’s offense hums for two or three games and the team can drill their three-point looks at a high level, it will be able to compete with Connecticut. That formula alone may not be enough, but it can keep the Fever in games.

A series that has two teams with significant stylistic differences will likely have many major adjustments. White has been there, done that. Sides has transformed her team’s style this season, but this is her first postseason in charge of the Fever. She rides different lineups on any given night based on what is and isn’t working and won’t be afraid to do so in this series. Her work with the clipboard will be a factor in the coming days.

It all starts on Sunday at Mohegan Sun Arena. That’s where this magical Indiana Fever season started, too — it’s a fitting destination. The clash of styles will make this best-of-three one of the most interesting first-round duels.