Sunday Notes, Week 14: Probable playoff matchup previews

Tankathon Check-in

To be clear, no one in the WNBA is currently tanking on purpose (at least, the players aren’t). That being said, let’s see where our teams are in the lottery standings through Sunday’s early slate of games and where they project to end up (chart vaguely organized by rightmost column):

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Playoff Matchups

New York v. Washington/Chicago/Atlanta

The Liberty — assuming they don’t lose out and Minnesota doesn’t win out — are going to steamroll whoever ends up with the No. 8 seed.

Minnesota v. Phoenix

The Lynx are 3-1 against the Mercury this season, and Phoenix has largely been uncompetitive of late. Since the Olympic break, it’s 0-6 against the top six playoff seeds, with an average point differential of -16.2 in those games.

The Mercury’s biggest advantage — no pun intended — ought to be Brittney Griner. Still, Alanna Smith has improved enough at guarding true centers in the post that their margin there isn’t nearly enough to overcome the deficits elsewhere. Natasha Cloud having to guard Napheesa Collier works better than you probably think, but it still doesn’t work that well. And Minnesota’s offense is built to stress all five defenders in good measure, making Diana Taurasi and Sophie Cunningham even tougher to hide than usual.

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Connecticut v. Indiana

Styles make fights. The Sun are 3-1 against the Fever this season, but Indiana took their most recent meeting, 84-80, the only time the two have met since early June. DeWanna Bonner did not have good shooting luck in that game, but neither did Caitlin Clark or Aliyah Boston. Still, the impacts of the Fever’s then-newfound command of extreme pace and space were clear on Connecticut’s defense, which showed many more holes than it usually does.

The Sun should still be clear favorites in this series — they have three of the best five players in this series, and their defensive advantage over Indiana is much greater than Indiana’s offensive advantage — but this would be the least surprising upset of all four series if it went the way of the underdog, I believe.

Las Vegas v. Seattle

The Aces are 2-1 against the Storm this season, but with one game separating them in the standings and a final matchup coming Tuesday in Seattle Center, home-court advantage could very well flip by this time next week. The two last met in an incredibly close affair shortly before the break, a five-point Vegas win in which Seattle struggled mightily to generate quality offense while trailing in the final minutes.

I’m not sure if there’s much to take away from either team’s recent results; the Aces are on a mini heater, having beaten Connecticut on the road and nearly taking down the Liberty without A’ja Wilson before a pair of wins at Indiana in which they looked a little gassed. The Storm split a pair in Uncasville before a close loss in Brooklyn.

Assuming Ezi Magbegor and Jewell Loyd are fully healthy — because if not, Seattle would need force majeure to advance — do you trust this Seattle offense to be able to hold serve against Vegas two out of three times? I’m not particularly confident there.