‘It had been coming’: Explaining the Washington Mystics’ growth in their past 11 games

The Mystics finally won their first game on June 11, ending the longest losing streak in franchise history. They had struggled in many areas during that time, especially with scoring the ball and in second halves.

But starting with that first win over the Atlanta Dream, the Mystics have gone 6-5. In that stretch, they nearly knocked off top-four teams Connecticut, Las Vegas and Minnesota, and their statistics have shown improvements nearly across the board.

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The differences are particularly stark on the offensive end, according to data from WNBA Stats. Since June 10, the day before their first win, the Mystics have scored 103.5 points per 100 possessions, up from 92.2 during their winless stretch. That is the second-largest improvement in the WNBA between those time periods, and it translates to 9.5 more points per game on average.

The Mystics have improved offensively in several ways: Their effective field goal percentage and 3-point shooting percentages are up. They’re scoring nearly four more points per game on fast breaks. Their assists — already a strength early in the season — have increased, and their turnovers are down slightly.

Defensively, the Mystics have gone from allowing 103.3 points per 100 possessions earlier in the season to 101.8 lately. Though that doesn’t look like a big difference, it’s the second-largest improvement in the WNBA, as most teams have allowed more points per 100 possessions as the season has progressed. It also means that, after allowing more points than they scored per 100 possessions earlier in the season, the Mystics have flipped that in the past month.

Protecting the paint and rebounding have been two crucial factors for the Mystics defensively. Since June 10, they have held opponents to a league-low 33.1 points in the paint. They’ve also dramatically improved their defensive-rebounding percentage, from 66.7% earlier in the season to 73.3% since June 10.

According to Atkins, more familiarity and communication have helped the Mystics improve on both ends. Washington had several newcomers this season, so it took time for players to learn their teammates’ preferences, strengths and weaknesses. Now, they understand those and can play to specific teammates’ strengths.

“I think we’re figuring each other out,” Atkins told reporters after a road win over the Indiana Fever on Wednesday. “But also, I think a big thing … is we’re actually listening. … We can talk, but we’re also listening.”

Head coach Eric Thibault drew a similar conclusion before Saturday’s game against Minnesota. “We’ve found kind of our rhythm and where people need to get the ball and how to use each other’s strengths,” he told reporters. “And it had been coming, and then kind of once it clicked, we went on a good run.”

That rhythm has helped the Mystics start games better than they did early in the season. Since June 10, they have outscored teams by 16.2 points per 100 possessions in first quarters, whereas during their winless start, they were outscored by nearly as much. The ball is moving better in first quarters, with assists on about 85% of their first-quarter baskets since June 10, and they’re shooting a higher percentage.

The Mystics have also played markedly better in third and fourth quarters after squandering several late leads during their 0-12 start. For example, in fourth quarters, they were outscored by 25.6 points per 100 possessions through June 10 but have been outscored by just 4.3 points per 100 possessions since.

The Mystics’ reserves have been a huge factor in the team’s recent success. Thibault has given his bench plenty of minutes all season, but the bench has scored more, and more efficiently, in the past month. Since June 10, the Mystics’ reserves have averaged 28.8 points per game on 44.8% shooting from the field and 39.3% from 3-point range, all of which are league bests. That compares with 24.5 points per game on 42.5% shooting overall and 25.0% from 3 in the first month of the season.

The reserves are also getting more rebounds and assists per game than they were early in the season, even as the Mystics have weathered several injuries that have turned some reserves into starters.

All told, the Mystics bench is outscoring opponents by 2.1 points per 100 possessions since June 10, whereas previously, it was being outscored by 7.2 points per 100 possessions. Like the team overall, it’s gone from a net negative to a net positive.

One example of the bench’s impact came on July 2, when the Mystics had struggled for three quarters against the Los Angeles Sparks and entered the fourth down by 12 points. Reserves Jade Melbourne, Shatori Walker-Kimbrough and Emily Engstler started the quarter alongside starters Stefanie Dolson and Julie Vanloo, and they immediately led the Mystics on a 14-2 run.

“That group just picked us up a little bit, and the energy of the game changed,” Thibault said postgame. “We started feeding off each other and playing the way we’ve been playing more the last few weeks. … We were a lot better.”

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Individually, several players have stepped up for the Mystics in the past month, starters and reserves alike. Though the injuries have forced Thibault to experiment with lineup combinations, his message to the players has been to keep their games the same, no matter what positions they’re nominally playing.

“Play your normal game,” Thibault said before the game against Connecticut on June 27. “Set screens, roll or pop, rebound the ball, cut when you’re supposed to cut. We don’t have to overcomplicate it.”

Five players who are currently healthy have increased their scoring by at least two points per game over the past month, for a total of 20-plus more points per game. That group includes Atkins and Dolson, who each have started all season; reserves Engstler and Walker-Kimbrough; and forward Myisha Hines-Allen, who has started the past eight games.

Atkins is the team’s leading scorer this season, and she’s found more of a rhythm playing with new teammates and finding her shots over the past month. Since June 10, she has averaged 17.0 points per game on 47.6% shooting from the field and 34.0% from 3-point range. Dolson has been elite from 3-point range all season, but in the past month, the 6’5 center has stepped up further, averaging 13.4 points per game on 53.2% shooting from deep.

“When teams are dialed in on [Ariel], they’re dialed in on Stef … it makes our job a lot easier because our man is helping and then we’re getting the open shots and taking them,” Hines-Allen told reporters after Saturday’s loss to Minnesota. “And we’re making them. So I think if we just keep playing off of what our shooters are doing and making reads, then, yeah, we’re good.”

Hines-Allen’s play has surged since she entered the starting lineup, and she’s scored in double figures in five of her last seven games. Twice already in July, she’s said after games that she’s learned to take what the defense gives her and play within herself.

“That’ll be key for me the rest of the season,” she said Saturday. “And it just works for the team when I’m not trying to do too much.”

For Walker-Kimbrough, the key has almost been the opposite — doing even more as the leader of the bench group. The veteran guard has scored in double figures in her past four games, which is the longest streak of her career. And she came up huge against the Sparks with 10 points in the pivotal fourth quarter.

“When Shatori’s aggressive, I think that’s just the difference-maker for her,” Thibault said postgame. “The fact that she wanted to take those shots down the stretch of the game is such a big deal for our team. And I’ve told her before, I don’t care if she misses them. It’s all about her mindset and her aggressiveness.”

Walker-Kimbrough has also been the vocal leader for the reserves. She huddles them before every game for a pep talk, and Thibault said she serves as their “de facto voice.” Longtime teammates Atkins and Hines-Allen both said they’ve never heard her talk as much as she has this season.

Engstler has seen her minutes increase the most over the past month, as injuries created opportunities and she took full advantage. She memorably scored 36 points in two games against the Dallas Wings in late June. She’s also been one of several Mystics bigs who have stepped up their rebounding as the season has progressed.

However, it hasn’t all been smooth sailing for the Mystics over the past month. They’ve played poorly in spurts, including getting blown out in a rematch against Las Vegas on July 4. They struggled for three quarters against Los Angeles, and on Wednesday they were outscored by 16 in the fourth quarter against Indiana, which turned a blowout into a nail-biter.

Thibault said Tuesday that the team has been inconsistent with turnovers and fouling, and he wants to see the offensive execution improve before next week’s Olympic break. He blamed the rough fourth quarter against Indiana mostly on careless turnovers — “a lot of things that you kind of start working on in elementary and middle school.”

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But even with those lulls, the Mystics’ improvements over the past month stand out on the scoreboard and in the statistics. And keeping their culture intact during the 0-12 start is what made that turnaround possible.

“We’re fighting for each other and fighting [alongside] each other, and I think that’s … one thing we have had is just camaraderie and each other’s back regardless,” wing DiDi Richards told reporters Tuesday. “We went through that stint when we were 0-and-whatever, and we still never wavered. We still were on the same page. … I really love this team for that reason.”

Unless otherwise hyperlinked, all statistics are from WNBA Stats. Full-season statistics and statistics since June 10 reflect games through July 10.