Where the Phoenix Mercury stand heading into playoff matchup against the Minnesota Lynx

Although the night was dedicated to celebrating the X-Factor—the Mercury’s loyal fan base—and Taurasi as she nears the end of her career, a looming cloud of blue and white hung over the season-ending festivities.

With the 89-70 loss to the Seattle Storm in the books, Taurasi and company turned their attention north to Minnesota, where they’ll open their first-round playoff series against the Lynx. 

Although the primary focus of Thursday’s game was giving starters rest instead of winning, the loss did kill the slight momentum Phoenix had built up from winning back-to-back road games. It was a risky drop-off for a team that hasn’t “played very good basketball here late,” according to their head coach Nate Tibbetts.

Since the Olympic break, the Mercury are 6-9. The only teams they’ve beaten are the Chicago Sky, Atlanta Dream and Los Angeles Sparks, all with losing records. The losses haven’t been particularly close, either. Their average margin of defeat post-break is 15.3 points, compared to a 9.5-point margin of victory. Still, Tibbetts is confident his team can pull it together.

“Our approach has just been we got to continue to get better,” Tibbetts said postgame on Sept. 13. “We haven’t played very good basketball here lately. There’s no hiding and ducking that. … but these are parts of the season. It’s obviously easy and fun when you’re playing well, but when you struggle, you get to see what your team is made of and if we’re gonna give in to the grind of the season, being maybe a little disappointed in how we’ve played, or how can we respond and what can I do to help us get out of this. And so, I think that’s the approach.”

Phoenix deals with setbacks, but has opportunities

A possible explanation for the Mercury’s decline in play is the lack of rest three of their four starters received. Taurasi, with wing Kahleah Copper and center Brittney Griner, spent the month-long break playing in the 2024 Olympics in Paris.

Another reason could be the absence of wing Rebecca Allen from the team’s rotation. Allen suffered a hamstring injury while playing with the Australian national team in late July. She missed the entirety of the Olympics, but hope remained that she would recover in time to help Phoenix in the playoffs. Saturday, the day before opening their first-round series, the team announced that Allen underwent surgery for a back issue and that she would not play again this season.

With Allen out, the Mercury still have to find a way to get back to the level of play they were at before the break and before her injury. It helps that Copper, who missed three games in a row, returned to play Thursday. Copper is the Mercury’s leading scorer, averaging 21.1 points per game on 43.5% shooting from the field and 31.4% from deep. She scored 30 or more points in nine games this season, including the Mercury’s lone win over the Lynx.

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The Mercury are 1-3 against the Lynx this season with an average margin of defeat of 16.7 points. Phoenix’s only win over Minnesota came early in the season on June 7. The game was also Brittney Griner’s season debut. The Mercury won at home 81-80 thanks to a last-second clutch bucket by Copper.

Along with the rest of her team, Copper’s quality of play has decreased post-All-Star break. Since, she’s averaging 16.8 points a game and is 38.5% from the field and 27% from three. With Copper being Phoenix’s number one option, her regression is directly related to that of the offense.

“I think [Copper’s] the number one usage player in the league,” Tibbetts told media pregame on Sept. 13. “Obviously, the Olympics, she’s had to do a lot for us offensively. So maybe it is [fatigue]. Again, this is her first Olympic experience. … Everything I’ve heard with [playing] during the Olympic season, or the year, is it brings different challenges. And so, they didn’t get much time off, hardly any. And so mentally and physically, I’m sure there is some fatigue there.”

Lynx have been a problem for the Mercury

Outside of the June matchup, Minnesota largely dominated Phoenix. In all of their losses to the Lynx, the Mercury only lead for a total of 1 minute and 28 seconds. It was never by more than two points and only happened in the first quarter with less than 10 points. Even in the game Phoenix won, the largest lead they managed to build was still nine points.

The Lynx’s net rating of 15.3 versus the Mercury is almost double their season-long rating of 8.0. Comparatively, -15.3 is over triple the Mercury’s standard of -4.1. Against the Lynx, Phoenix’s defensive rating remains largely the same, but their offensive rating drops from 101.3 to 90.0.

For much of the season, Minnesota has been credited with having one of, if not the best defenses in the league. Forward Napheesa Collier is a front-runner for Defensive Player of the Year while head coach Cheryl Reeve is near the front of the pack in the Coach of the Year race. Collier, along with guard Courtney Williams and forward Alanna Smith are all top 10 in the league in defensive rating among players who’ve played at least 20 games. 

“Minnesota’s really good offensively and defensively,” Tibbetts said Thursday. “They’re a really good three-point shooting team, and they guard the three. And obviously, they’ve got a really, really good player in Collier. They’re tough. They’re well-coached. And they’re solid.”

Minnesota has been one of the league’s hottest teams down the stretch thanks in part to their offense as well as their defense. The Lynx’s balanced attack makes it difficult for defenses to keep the them off the scoreboard.

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Collier is fifth in the league, scoring 20.4 points per game. Williams, Smith and guard Kayla McBride also all average double-digit points. McBride and forward Bridget Carleton are both shooting over 40% from beyond the arc. They’ve made the sixth and eighth most threes, respectively, among the league this season. In Phoenix’s win over the Lynx, McBride scored 25 points, going 8-for-13 from three.

“We want to defend the rim first, but we have to do a better job. She’s an elite shooter,” Tibbetts said then of McBride’s performance. “She’s averaging like eight attempts a game. [For] us to let her shoot 13, that’s not good enough. We have to do a better job of taking those threes away. And she got cooking. She got hot.”

Mercury are ready for the challenge

Considering how Phoenix has played as of late, it could be a rough few days for the Mercury in Minnesota. However, that’s not stopping Phoenix from heading into Sunday’s series opener with an optimistic outlook. 

Four of Phoenix’s starters have won WNBA championships. Some did so as one of the top teams in the league, others had to fight from behind to win it all. The Mercury may be at a disadvantage going into the playoffs, but they feel plenty confident in their ability to run the table.

“I mean, I think anytime you go into a series in a game, you think you’re going to be successful, and that’s our mindset,” Tibbetts told media Tuesday. “Tomorrow is a new day. It’s a start of a new season. We’ve got a group that has won playoff series, won championships, and we’re not just going there for two games. We’re going there to win, and that’s our mindset.”

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